Tue, Dec 10, 2019

Two teams that know each other well — the New England Patriots and Houston Texans — reunite once again when the two AFC division leaders face off in a key Sunday Night Football matchup at NRG Stadium in Houston. Three members of the Texans coaching staff formerly coached under Bill Belichick in New England: coach Bill O’Brien, who was the Patriots offensive coordinator; defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel, who was the Patriots defensive coordinator in their first three Super Bowl-winning seasons; and special teams coach Brad Seely, who also coached the special teams in New England. And the familiarity goes beyond the staffs; the Texans (7-4) and Patriots (10-1) have met four times over the last five seasons, with New England winning all of those games. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. New England is a three-point favorite, and the over-under for total points scored is 47 in the latest Patriots vs. Texans odds. Before you make any Texans vs. Patriots picks or Sunday Night Football predictions, you have to see what SportsLine’s resident Vegas legend, Micah Roberts, has to say.

Roberts worked in the Las Vegas sportsbook industry for more than 20 years, including a 13-year run as Station Casinos’ book director. Armed with an unmatched network of sources, the former bookmaker became a SportsLine expert in 2016.

He has been red-hot over the last month. Since the start of Week 8, Roberts has gone 17-10 on his last 27 NFL picks. In addition, he has been uncanny with his picks in games involving the Texans. In fact, he is 10-2 on his last 12 against-the-spread picks involving Houston. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, Roberts has locked in on this AFC heavyweight battle and generated another strong against-the-spread pick for Patriots vs. Texans on Sunday Night Football. You can head to SportsLine to see it. Here are several NFL betting lines for the game:

  • Texans vs. Patriots spread: New England -3
  • Texans vs. Patriots over-under: 47 points
  • Texans vs. Patriots money line: New England -170, Houston +150
  • NE: CB Stephon Gilmore has four interceptions and 11 breakups this season
  • HOU: WR DeAndre Hopkins is No. 2 in the NFL in receptions (81)

Roberts knows that Tom Brady has a history of success against the Texans. The future Hall of Fame quarterback is 9-1 in his career against Houston. He has thrown 25 touchdowns against just seven interceptions in those games. Brady enters Sunday’s matchup averaging 284.2 passing yards per game and is completing 64.4 percent of his passes against the Texans.

Roberts has also factored in that Houston has not performed well this year against the tougher teams on its schedule. Against teams that are currently leading their division, the Texans are 1-2 this season, with a victory over Kansas City but losses against New Orleans and Baltimore. The combined score of those three games is 95-66.

Even so, New England isn’t guaranteed to cover the Patriots vs. Texans spread on Sunday Night Football.

Roberts also knows the Texans’ offense is much more explosive with receiver Will Fuller in the lineup. With Fuller this season, Houston is averaging 6.27 yards per play; without him, that number is just 5.31. With Fuller in the lineup last week against Indianapolis, the Texans had five pass plays of at least 20 yards. In the three previous games without him, Houston had six combined.

In addition, the Patriots’ offense has been struggling. Since the start of Week 9, New England is averaging just 16.7 points and 307.3 total yards per game. Both of those figures rank 23rd in the NFL over that span.

Roberts has analyzed this matchup and while we can tell you he’s leaning under, he has discovered a crucial x-factor that makes one side of the spread a must-back. He’s sharing it only at SportsLine. 

So who wins Texans vs. Patriots on Sunday Night Football? And what crucial factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Texans vs. Patriots spread you should jump on Sunday, all from the Vegas legend who is 10-2 on his last 12 against-the-spread picks involving Houston.

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