Mon, Oct 14, 2019

The Atlanta Falcons will take on the Houston Texans at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday at NRG Stadium. Houston is 2-2 overall and 1-1 at home, while Atlanta is 1-3 overall and 0-2 on the road. Houston is 2-2 against the spread this season, but is just 1-9 in its last 10 games played in Week 5. Atlanta is 1-3 against the spread this season and 1-6 against the spread in its last seven road games. Houston is favored by four-points in the latest Falcons vs. Texans odds, while the Over-Under is set at 50. Before you make any Falcons vs. Texans picks and predictions, you’ll want to see what the SportsLine Projection Model is saying.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 5 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a blistering 21-11 run that dates back to last season. It’s also on an 83-54 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. And in Week 4, it nailed the Saints (+2.5) winning outright as underdogs against the Cowboys. The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third year in a row on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has simulated Falcons vs. Texans 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under, and it also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

The model has taken into account that Houston was within striking distance last week, but couldn’t close the gap — falling 16-10 to the Carolina Panthers. Deshaun Watson struggled at times against the Panthers, passing for just 160 yards. The Texans also couldn’t take advantage of three Carolina turnovers, nor could they contain running back Christian McCaffrey — who had 93 rushing yards and a touchdown along with 10 receptions for 86 yards.

Atlanta, meanwhile, dropped its second straight game, falling to the Tennessee Titans 24-10. The Falcons lost despite quarterback Matt Ryan’s throwing for 397 yards. Tight end Austin Hooper caught nine passes for 130 yards against Tennessee, which made three fourth-down stops against the Falcons to secure the victory. Atlanta has been outscored 65-10 in the first half of its three losses this season.

Two stats to be aware of: Houston enters Sunday’s game boasting an NFL-best eight forced fumbles, while Atlanta is stumbling into the game with the most penalties in the NFL, having accrued 42 this season for 314 yards.

So who wins Falcons vs. Texans? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Falcons vs. Texans spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its NFL picks.

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