Mon, Oct 14, 2019

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes will try to continue his prolific start to the season when he and the Chiefs face the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead Stadium. Through four games this season, Mahomes leads the league in passing yards per game (377.5) and touchdown passes (10). The Chiefs (4-0) remain one of three undefeated teams in the NFL, with the Patriots and 49ers. Meanwhile, the Colts (2-2) have been up-and-down all season, beating the Titans and Falcons but losing to the Chargers and Raiders. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Kansas City is a 10.5-point favorite in the latest Colts vs. Chiefs odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 55.5. Before you make any Colts vs. Chiefs picks of your own, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 5 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a blistering 21-11 run that dates back to last season. It’s also on an 83-54 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. And in Week 4, it nailed the Saints (+2.5) winning outright as underdogs against the Cowboys.

The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third year in a row on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now the model has dialed in on Colts vs. Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. We can tell you it is leaning under, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in over 50 percent of simulations. That one is only available at SportsLine. 

The model has taken into account that the Chiefs have been deadly through the air but also have an effective rushing attack. Kansas City is led by veteran running back LeSean McCoy, who has carried 40 times for 214 yards and two touchdowns, including a long run of 39 yards. Mahomes, Darrel Williams, and Damien Williams have also combined for 173 yards rushing and three touchdowns.

The Chiefs enter Sunday Night Football averaging 474.8 yards per game on offense, which ranks second in the league. Mahomes is averaging 373 yards per game through the air, and now he’ll look to exploit a Colts defense that has given up five touchdown passes in their last two games.

But just because Kansas City has an explosive offense does not guarantee it will cover the Chiefs vs. Colts spread on Sunday. 

That’s because Jacoby Brissett is more than capable of having a big day. On Sept. 22, he had a career afternoon, completing 28-of-37 passes for 310 yards and two touchdowns in a 27-24 win over the Falcons. He did not throw an interception that day. In last week’s loss to the Raiders he did not play as well, but he did not have wide receiver T.Y. Hilton, who’s recorded four touchdown receptions already this season.  

Indianapolis’ offense should be able to move the ball against Kansas City’s defense. The Chiefs have given up 408.5 yards per game, which is the third worst in the NFL. Their rushing defense allows 149.8 yards per game, the second most in the league. Meanwhile, Indianapolis has an excellent ground game that churns out 132.5 yards per game, which ranks seventh in the NFL. 

So who wins Colts vs. Chiefs on Sunday Night Football? And which side of the spread is hitting in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Colts vs. Chiefs spread to jump on Sunday, all from the advanced model that is up more than $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.

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