Wed, Dec 11, 2019

The Saints don’t plan to let the Falcons trip them up again when New Orleans visits the Atlanta Falcons on Thanksgiving night. New Orleans has established itself as one of the 2020 Super Bowl favorites in going 9-2 despite star quarterback Drew Brees missing six weeks while recovering from thumb surgery. A 26-9 loss to the Falcons in Week 10 is the only blemish on the Saints’ record in the last nine games, and Brees has the NFL‘s top receiver in Michael Thomas and one of the league’s most versatile backs in Alvin Kamara. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. New Orleans is a 6.5-point favorite in the latest Saints vs. Falcons odds, while the over-under is 48.5, down from an open of 50. Before you make your Falcons vs. Saints picks, you should see the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 13 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 31-20 run that dates back to last season. It’s also on an incredible 93-63 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Saints vs. Falcons. We can tell you that the model is leaning over, and has generated a strong against the spread pick that is hitting in well over 50 percent of simulations. Head to SportsLine to see it. Now, here are the betting lines and trends for Saints vs. Falcons: 

  • Saints vs. Falcons spread: New Orleans -6.5
  • Saints vs. Falcons over-under: 48.5
  • Saints vs. Falcons money line: New Orleans -310, Atlanta +250
  • NO: WR Michael Thomas has at least 89 yards in 10 of 11 games.
  • ATL: WR Calvin Ridley has 14 catches for 228 yards the past two games.

The model has taken into account that the Saints eked past the Panthers on a last-second field goal last Sunday and are 11-5 against the spread in their last 16 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. They will make sure to protect Brees this time after he was sacked six times in the last meeting. Given time, Brees can carve teams up and is completing 75.7 percent of his passes. Thomas has NFL bests with 104 receptions and 1,242 yards, with six touchdowns. 

Kamara averages 4.6 yards per carry and is second on the team with 60 catches for 421 yards. Tight end Jared Cook has 29 receptions for 374 yards and four TDs, while speedster Ted Ginn averages 14.5 yards on his 24 catches. The defense gets big plays from linebacker Demario Davis (80 tackles, two sacks), safety Vonn Bell (71 tackles, four fumble recoveries) and end Cameron Jordan (9.5 sacks).

New Orleans has been tough to beat this season, but that doesn’t mean it will cover the Falcons vs. Saints spread on Thanksgiving. 

The Falcons are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Bucs had 446, and Atlanta had no sacks, so the Falcons will need to get back to the game plan they used to beat New Orleans. Defensive tackle Grady Jarrett had 2.5 of his 5.5 sacks in the last meeting, and end Vic Beasley had 1.5. De’Vondre Campbell had his only sack in that game, but he has made plenty of plays this season, picking off two passes, forcing two fumbles and leading the team with 96 tackles. Fellow linebacker Deion Jones has 82 tackles.

The Falcons are 4-0 against the spread against teams with a winning record. The running game has struggled with Devonta Freeman (foot) out, but Freeman is expected back on Thursday night. Quarterback Matt Ryan has thrown for 2,934 yards and 18 touchdowns despite facing pressure and being sacked 29 times. He may need to rely more on receiver Calvin Ridley on Thursday if Julio Jones (questionable) is slowed by a shoulder injury he suffered Sunday. Ridley has 699 yards on 50 catches, while Russell Gage had eight of his 25 receptions in Sunday’s loss.

So who wins Saints vs. Falcons during the 2019 NFL Thanksgiving Day schedule? And which side of the spread can you bank on in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Saints vs. Falcons spread you should be all over on Thursday, all from the model that has returned over $7,000 on its top-rated picks.

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