Sun, Dec 15, 2019

One of the best receivers in the NFL goes up against one of the best cornerbacks in the league when DeAndre Hopkins and the Houston Texans square off with Stephon Gilmore and the New England Patriots in a marquee Sunday Night Football matchup at NRG Stadium in Houston. Hopkins ranks second in the NFL in receptions (81) and had two touchdown receptions last week in a win over Indianapolis that gave the Texans (7-4) a one-game lead in the AFC South. The Texans enter Sunday’s showdown having won five of their last seven games. Meanwhile, Gilmore has not allowed a catch in back-to-back games and has an interception and three pass breakups over that span. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. New England is a three-point favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Texans odds, and the over-under for total points scored is 47. Before you make any Texans vs. Patriots picks, see the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 13 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 31-20 run that dates back to last season. It’s also on an incredible 93-63 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model has also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch the past three years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players last season. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Texans vs. Patriots. We can tell you that the model is leaning under, and it’s also generated an against the spread pick that is hitting in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can head to SportsLine to see it. Now, here are the betting lines and trends for Texans vs. Patriots:  

  • Patriots vs. Texans spread: New England -3
  • Patriots vs. Texans over-under: 47 points
  • Patriots vs. Texans money line: New England -170, Houston +155
  • NE: Cornerback Stephon Gilmore has not allowed a catch in back-to-back games
  • HOU: Receiver DeAndre Hopkins is No. 2 in the NFL in receptions (81)

The model knows that New England’s defense is one of the best in the NFL. The unit is giving up a measly 10.6 points per game, which is the fewest in the league, and ranks second in yards per game allowed (256.4). The Patriots also lead the NFL with 29 takeaways, having recorded 20 interceptions and nine fumble recoveries.

In addition, the model has taken into account that the Patriots’ run defense showed much improvement over the last two weeks. In victories over Philadelphia and Dallas, New England allowed 95.0 rushing yards per game and a 4.04 yards per carry average. By contrast in the previous six games, the team coughed up 130.3 rushing yards a game and a 5.55 average.

Even so, New England, a team getting 7-2 Super Bowl odds in the latest NFL futures, isn’t guaranteed to cover the Texans vs. Patriots spread on Sunday Night Football.

The model knows that Houston has one of the best offenses in the league. The Texans rank in the top-10 in nearly every meaningful offensive statistic. They’re No. 7 in total offense (381.6 yards per game), No. 7 in rushing offense (136.9 yards per game) and No. 10 in scoring offense (24.1 points a game).

Houston’s defense will also face a New England offense that has been misfiring in recent weeks. In fact, the Patriots have scored a paltry 16.7 points and gained just 307.3 yards a game over the last three contests. Both of those rank 23rd in the league during that time period.

So who wins Patriots vs. Texans on Sunday Night Football? And which side of the spread is hitting in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Patriots vs. Texans spread to jump on Sunday, all from the advanced model that is up more than $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks.

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