Mon, Oct 14, 2019

The New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills are tied at 3-0 atop the AFC East standings. Both teams are 2-1 against the spread this season and failed to cover the last time out. Now, the Patriots and Bills will meet on Sunday in Buffalo, with sole possession of first place in the division on the line. Kickoff is at 1 p.m. ET. The Patriots have dominated their AFC East opponents in recent years, winning nine of their last 10 games against division rivals. Buffalo, meanwhile, is 5-1 in its last six games and 4-2 against the spread in its last six games against AFC East opponents. New England is a seven-point favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Bills odds, while the over-under is 41.5, down two from the opener and one of the lowest of Week 4. Before you make any Patriots vs. Bills picks of your own, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 4 of the 2019 season on a strong 17-10 run. It’s also on a 79-53 roll on top-rated NFL against the spread picks that dates back to the 2017 season. And in Week 3, it was all over the Saints (+5) without Drew Brees covering against the Seahawks and Daniel Jones leading the Giants (+5) to the cover against the Bucs. The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third year in a row on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has simulated Bills vs. Patriots 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you the model is leaning Under, and it’s also generated an against the spread pick that is hitting in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

The model knows Bills didn’t have too much breathing room in their game with Cincinnati last week, but they still walked away with a 21-17 victory. Among those leading the charge for Buffalo was running back Frank Gore, who rushed for 76 yards and one touchdown on 14 carries. Gore was filling in for injured rookie Devin Singletary (hamstring), who will once again sit this week. Buffalo’s win came on an one-yard rush from Gore with only 1:54 remaining in the fourth quarter. The Bills have four picks entering Week 4, good for third in the the league.

New England plays well at New Era Field, as the Patriots are 5-0 against the spread in their last five games in Buffalo. They’re also 6-1 against the number in their last seven games overall. Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has been predictably effective so far in 2019, throwing for 911 yards and seven touchdowns as part of a 3-0 start. His top target in 2019, wide receiver Julian Edelman (17 receptions, 196 yards, 1 TD), traveled with the team and is active on Sunday after suffering a chest injury.

At 311.3 passing yards per game, New England is the No. 2 team in the NFL through three weeks. The Patriots’ 106 points so far are just four behind Philadelphia and Baltimore. The Bills are also 3-0 this season, but that cannot compare to Brady’s otherworldly 30-3 record against them, an NFL career record among quarterbacks for most wins against a single opponent.

So who wins Bills vs. Patriots? And which side of the spread is hitting in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Patriots vs. Bills spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the computer model that has crushed its NFL picks. 

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