Mon, Oct 14, 2019

It’s still early in the 2019 NFL schedule, but it’s already approaching desperation time for several teams that hoped to be 2020 Super Bowl contenders. The Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3) found the win column against the Bengals in Week 4, but they’re still going off as four-point home underdogs against the Baltimore Ravens this week, according to the latest Week 5 NFL odds. The Week 5 NFL spreads also show the 0-4 Denver Broncos as 6.5-point underdogs against the Los Angeles Chargers in an AFC West showdown. And the 1-3 Atlanta Falcons, who have dropped consecutive games to the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans, desperately need a win against another AFC South squad, the Houston Texans, who are going off at -5 according to the latest NFL lines. At five points, that’s one of the largest NFL lines of the week. NFL odds will continue to change as kickoffs approach. Before locking in any Week 5 NFL picks on games involving hungry teams or any other matchups, be sure to see the NFL predictions from the advanced computer model at SportsLine.

This model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 5 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a blistering 21-11 run that dates back to last season. It’s also on a 83-54 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. And in Week 4, it nailed the Saints (+2.5) winning outright as underdogs against the Cowboys.

The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third year in a row on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has examined the latest Week 5 NFL odds and lines, simulated every snap, and its football predictions are in. One of the top Week 5 NFL predictions the model recommends: the Giants (+4.5) stay within the spread against the Vikings.

Rookie quarterback Daniel Jones is 2-0 straight-up and against the spread as the Giants’ starter. Those wins came against the Buccaneers and Redskins, however, two of the league’s lower-ranked passing defenses. He’ll be tested against the Vikings, the league’s No. 5 overall scoring defense. The model says that Jones piles up around 250 yards through the air as the Giants cover in over 50 percent of simulations. There’s also plenty of value on the under (45) because that hits almost 70 percent of the time.

Another one of the Week 5 NFL picks from the model: the Tennessee Titans (-2.5) cover the spread against the Buffalo Bills in Nashville.

It’s been a roller-coaster season for the Titans, who blasted the Browns in their opener, lost consecutive AFC South matchups as favorites against the Colts and Jaguars, and then bounced back with an impressive 24-10 victory against the Falcons last Sunday. The Bills, meanwhile, are 3-1, but have major questions at quarterback, with Josh Allen in concussion protocol to begin the week. Journeyman Matt Barkley would likely get the call if Allen can’t go.

The model predicts that Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota will account for 200 yards of total offense, while running back Derrick Henry goes for 71 yards on the ground. The Titans, who will get All-Pro offensive tackle Taylor Lewan back from suspension, cover in well over 50 percent of simulations. And in a battle of top-five scoring defenses, the under (38.5) hits in more than 60 percent of simulations.

The model also has a strong pick for the battle between the Cowboys and Packers, and is calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard this week. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 5? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that is up over $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-1.5, 49)
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (+4, 42.5)
Chicago Bears at Oakland Raiders (+4.5, 41)
Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5, 48.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 41)
Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants (+4.5, 45)
New England Patriots at Washington Redskins (+15.5, 44)
New York Jets at Philadelphia Eagles (-14, 44.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-4.5, 47.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texas (-5, 48.5)
Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans (-2.5, 38.5)
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5, 43.5)
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 47)
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5, 57)
Cleveland Browns at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 48)

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