Mon, Oct 14, 2019

The Kansas City Chiefs look to build on last year’s success on Sunday Night Football when they host the Indianapolis Colts in a key early-season matchup at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs (4-0), who fell just short of making the Super Bowl last season, are 3-0 against AFC opponents this season, while the Colts (2-2), who lost to the Chiefs in last year’s divisional round of the playoffs, are 1-0 within the AFC South but 1-2 against AFC foes. Sunday’s game will kick off at 8:20 p.m. ET. The Chiefs are favored by 11-points in the latest Colts vs. Chiefs odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 56. Before you make any Colts vs. Chiefs picks, make sure you check out what the SportsLine Projection Model says.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 5 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a blistering 21-11 run that dates back to last season. It’s also on an 83-54 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. And in Week 4, it nailed the Saints (+2.5) winning outright as underdogs against the Cowboys.

The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third year in a row on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now the model has dialed in on Colts vs. Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. We can tell you it is leaning under, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in over 50 percent of simulations. That one is only available at SportsLine. 

The model is well aware that the Chiefs have one of the league’s most prolific offenses. In fact, the Chiefs are first in the NFL in passing yards per game (377.5) and second in total yards (479.3). Wide receiver Sammy Watkins, a sixth-year veteran, leads Kansas City with three touchdown catches to go along with 23 receptions for 365 yards. Watkins now has 31 touchdown receptions in his career.

Defensively, the Chiefs have been applying the pressure and are 10th in sacks with 11, led by Emmanuel Ogbah with 2.5 and Chris Jones with two. They are also fifth in forced fumbles with six, including three recovered and one returned for a touchdown. Kansas City also has three interceptions.

But just because Kansas City has an explosive offense does not guarantee it will cover the Chiefs vs. Colts spread on Sunday. 

That’s because the Colts are 7-3 in their last 10 games played at Arrowhead, including a 2-1 mark in the playoffs. The Colts are known to play in tight games, with all four this season decided by seven points or fewer.

Indianapolis has one of the league’s top rushing attacks and is ranked seventh with an average of 132.5 yards on the ground per game. Leading the way for the Colts is third-year veteran Marlon Mack, who has already rushed for 338 yards, including 174 yards against the Los Angeles Chargers in the season-opener. He injured his ankle last week against Oakland, but is expected to return this week. He’s officially listed as questionable.

So who wins Colts vs. Chiefs on Sunday Night Football? And which side of the spread is hitting in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Colts vs. Chiefs spread to jump on Sunday, all from the advanced model that is up more than $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.

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